The question of whether Hamas' military commander Mohammed Deif was indeed assassinated in the attack on his ostensible hideout in Gaza City Tuesday night has still not been answered, but the attempt itself scored Israel two major points: It proved the drastic improvement of Israel's intelligence capabilities in the Gaza Strip, narrowing down the location of top players in the military wing, and served as a major public relations victory in showing that Israel's main targets are the senior commanders overseeing Hamas' battles and rocket operation, rather than indiscriminate civilians.
The focus of Israel's operation in Gaza has moved beyond the mostly destroyed tunnels and waning rocket caches that the 45-day war has centered on so far: it is now the military commanders in charge of Hamas' activities that have returned to the lens of the Israeli defense establishment's periscope. Targeted assassinations have long been a part of Israel's modus operendi against terrorist entities, from Hamas to Hezbollah, and have resumed in full force following the collapse of the cease-fire talks in Cairo.
Deif's wife, infant son and teenaged daughter were killed in the attack on the home of Mohammed Yassin Dalou, the chief rocket commander in Gaza and member of an integral family of Hamas activists. The successful or failed attempt on Deif's own life, yet to be verified, was followed by two more thorough and proven assassinations the next night: the senior commander of the southern Gaza brigades, Mohammed Abu Shamaleh, and his Rafah brigadier, Raed al-Attar, integral elements in that region of the Strip, both heavily involved in the captures of Corp. Gilad Shalit in 2006 and of Liet. Hadar Goldin last month. These assassinations have severely weakened Gaza's southern command; though Hamas' military leaders are largely interchangeable, these were rocket and battle experts with lengthy experience and heavy authority over Rafah and the surrounding area. For the near future at least, Rafah under Hamas is unguided, and under uncertain command.
Israel was able to pinpoint both the location of the Deif family and that of the two southern brigadiers through huminet intelligence, its strongest yet in a war of limited Shin Bet sources, following three failed cease-fires and dead-end negotiations. Twenty-one collaborators are said to have been executed by Hamas following the assassinations, indications of the veracity of this cooperation and of others yet to emerge.
Hamas insists that Deif was unharmed in the attack on the Dalou home, declaring the day after his alleged assassination that he was alive and well and remained the commander who would lead the units to conquest of the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. Yet most analysts, and basic intelligence, estimate that Deif was killed in the attempt. Deif was already severely disabled by four prior attempts by Israel on his life, and served in the last few years as a figurehead alone, while the actual operations were overseen by acting chief Marwan Issa. Without video proof or at least an audio message from Deif, there can be no clear verification of his survival or demise.
Palestinian news agencies released a certificate of death containing two names immediately following the fatal attack on the Al-Sultan neighborhood in Gaza, where the Dalou family lives and the Deifs were staying: those of Deif's wife Widad, and their 7-month-old son Ali. A second certificate circulated by the Gazan agency Saham News hours later showed a near identical document, with another line inserted above, naming Mohammed Deif, born in 1965, as a third fatality in the attack. Both documents are suspect to forgery; no clear answer has yet emerged which was indeed doctored, or by whom.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas held a little-publicized, but very important meeting with Hamas' political chief Khaled Meshal on Thursday in Doha, alongside the chief Palestinian negotiator to the Cairo talks, Ahmed al Azzam, and the Qatari ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.
At the end of these talks, Meshal plans to travel to Cairo with Abbas, for the first time since his visit to Gaza two years ago, as a persona very non grata in Egypt. The decision whether Egypt will allow his entry depends on the outcome of Thursday night's discussions: he will likely only be invited into Cairo if the talks with the Palestinian Authority delegation yields results for a future arrangement and if his purpose in Cairo is to close such a deal.
Deif, by most intelligence and basic scenarios, did not manage to reach his ninth cat life, nor even a fifth miraculous survival of Israeli assassination attempts. He has already achieved godlike status in Gaza, despite holding only a nominal commander status since his last devastating injury by Israel in 2006.
Israel's assassination policies, harsh and lethal and of inevitable costs, have been questioned numerous times as to whether they are effective or a waste of energy and life. With Meshal now begging to return to Cairo, no sign of truce ahead and a severe Israeli intelligence dart on the heads of Gaza's military commanders, this policy seems ever more effective – not marked just by those who are killed, but by who is targeted and at what proximity.
Mohammed Deif, a skeleton of a human from four assassination attempts, is not only a figurehead commander to Hamas: he is a figurehead in Israel's targeted attempts as well. He has died four times before, one more, even final, will hardly make a difference. The tie has been broken by proof of Israel's intelligence in Gaza as the war enters its 46th day without sign of relent. Hamas has just a few thousand rockets remaining, but wants a war of attrition, willing to fight to the last explosive. Israel can now accede, knowing the attrition is on its side. Its army is strong and its intelligence in a formerly off-limits territory is tight, capable of weakening Hamas. The arm wrestle is on. One side must give. Hamas, always first to throw the shots, is already buckling. The only victory now will be back on the diplomatic battlefields of Cairo.
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